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Monthly Market Roundup                                     Market Outlook: April
                                                           Going ahead, Indian equity markets will remain
Indian equity markets         market sentiments were       positive this month on the back of thumping victory
started the March month       lifted after the Lok Sabha   for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh elections. The election
on an optimistic note.        cleared four bills related   results has lifted concerns over political stability,
The markets remained          to the Goods and Services    due to which now most FPIs are of the view that
positive throughout the       Tax (GST).                   the government will now push reform agenda. The
month and touched all         The month finally ended      election results could provide a much needed boost
time high in reaction to the  with upward bias as S&P      to government to accelerate the pace of reforms,
BJP’s landslide victory in    BSE Sensex delivered         including the rollout of the crucial Goods and
Uttar Pradesh elections.      positive returns of 3.05%    Services Tax (GST). GST is one of the key reforms
The US Fed hiked interest     to settle at 29620.50 and    that have the potential to bring about a structural
rates by 25 basis points,     Nifty50 gained 3.31%         change in the Indian economy.
as expected, but didn't       ending the month at          On the economic data front, the RBI’s monetary
raise projections for future  9173.75.                     policy which will be scheduled on 6th April, 2017
tightening gave comfort to    On the institutional side,   and the US Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate
global investors. Positive    foreign institutional        would also impact the markets. Further, Indian
news from the tabling of      investors (FIIs) bought      macro economic data, Q4FY17 corporate earnings,
GST bills and the Finance     Rs 31,326.46 crore worth of  European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and
Minister's comments           equities during the month    Japanese monetary policy will be major events to
regarding a policy decision   while domestic mutual        watch for. Hence, we recommend investors to invest
for solving India's bad       fund houses continued        in fundamentally sound companies for long term .
loans problems, also          their buying spree with net
helped markets to gain        purchases of Rs 2,367.60       Nifty Technical Outlook: April
momentum. Further, the        crore in March 2017.
Economic Data Wrap Up – March
                                                            On the monthly chart, we are observing a bull
¡	 India's Feb Nikkei         ¡	 India’s Feb WPI            candle which has registered new all-time high this
   manufacturing PMI             inflation rose to 6.55%    suggests that momentum on the upside is likely to
   rose to 50.7 from 50.4        from 5.25% in Jan.         continue. In the coming month if Nifty trades and
   in Jan.                                                  closes above 9245 level then it is likely to test 9349
                              ¡	 India’s Feb trade          – 9454 – 9576 levels. However, if Nifty trades and
¡	 India’s Feb Nikkei            deficit rose to $8.90      closes below 9102 level then it can test 8997 – 8893
   Services PMI rose to          bln from $6.57 bln         – 8771 levels.
   50.3 from 48.7 in Jan.        YoY.                       Broadly, we are of the opinion that monthly
                                                            trend is up and 9000 to 8950 remains crucial
¡	 India’s Jan IIP growth     ¡	 India Oct-Dec CAD at       demand zone going ahead. Hence as long as
   rose to 2.7% vs -0.1 %        1.4% of GDP vs 0.6%        Nifty holds the mentioned level on closing
   in Dec.                       of GDP QoQ.                basis there is high probability that markets
                                                            are likely to test 9400 - 9600 levels in couple of
¡	 India’s Feb CPI            ¡	 India’s Feb core           months.
   inflation rose to 3.65%       industries growth fell
   from 3.17% in Jan.            to 1% vs 3.4% in Jan.                                      3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ APRIL 2017
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