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Monthly Market misappropriation of P-notes. Market Outlook: June
Roundup During the last week of the
month, sentiment in the Going ahead, the global equity markets are likely
Indian equity markets started equity markets improved to remain volatile over uncertainty regarding rate
the month of May on a considerably following hike by the US Fed. In the domestic markets, apart
sluggish note with volatile upgrades from HSBC from global cues, factors such as movement of rupee
sessions throughout the and Morgan Stanley on against dollar, crude oil price movement, growing
month closing at their seven supportive macroeconomic inflation and the bank NPA crisis are likely to impact
month highest levels. Key factors as well as forecast market sentiments. With the Q4FY16 corporate
legislative events such as of a strong monsoon, earnings season over, focus will now be on RBI's
passing of the Bankruptcy better corporate earnings monetary policy statement scheduled for Jun 7,
Law, national Intellectual and buying support from 2016. Further, macroeconomic events, monsoon
Property Right (IPR) policy domestic institutions. progress and US FOMC meeting scheduled for
and change in Mauritius- Jun 15, 2016 will be keenly watched for market
India Tax Treaty were the key The month finally ended direction. We recommend investors should invest
triggers during the month. with upward bias as S&P BSE in fundamentally strong companies at attractive
Amendment of the double Sensex delivered robust return valuations.
tax avoidance treaty with of 4.14% to settle at 26667.96
Mauritius by the Indian and Nifty 50 gained 3.95% Nifty Technical Outlook: June
government to tax capital ending the month at 8160.10.
gains spooked foreign The current price action on the monthly chart has
investors, leading to a sharp On the institutional side, formed a bull candle which has marginally close
fall in the equity markets. foreign institutional investors above the downward sloping trendline. This
Domestic sentiments were (FIIs) bought Rs 2,542.89 crore suggests upside momentum. At present, on the
also hit as investors turned worth of equities during the upside, 8285 is immediate resistance, any close
cautious after SEBI tightened month while domestic mutual above the mentioned level would intensify the
its guidelines to check any fund houses bought Rs upside momentum. In coming month, if Nifty
6,307.50 crore in May 2016. trades and close above 8285 level then it is likely
to test 8418 – 8575 – 8757 levels. However, if Nifty
Economic Data Wrap Up – May trades and close below 8050 level then it can test
7901 – 7745 – 7563 levels.
¡ India's Apr Nikkei ¡ India’s Mar FDI inflows rose Broadly, for current month 8285 remains make
or break level going forward. Any close above
manufacturing PMI fell to to $3.82 bln from $3.53 bln 8285 would reverse the month downtrend.
In such scenario momentum on the upside is
50.5 from 52.4 in Mar. YoY. likely to intensify.
¡ India’s Apr Nikkei Services ¡ India’s Apr trade deficit fell 3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ JUNE 2016
PMI fell to 53.7 from 54.3 in to $4.84 bln from $5.07 bln in
Mar. Mar.
¡ India’s Mar IIP growth fell to ¡ India’s Apr core sector
0.1% from 2% in Feb. growth rose to 8.5% from
¡ India’s Apr CPI inflation rose 6.4% in Mar.
to 5.39% from 4.83% in Mar. ¡ India’s Jan-Mar GDP growth
¡ India’s Apr WPI inflation rose rose to 7.9% from 7.3% QoQ.
to 0.34% from (-) 0.85% in Mar.
